The Role of Ranson's Score at Admission and After 48 Hours in Predicting Mortality and Morbidity in Acute Pancreatitis

Abstract

Objectives: To evaluate the role of the Ranson scoring system in predicting acute pancreatitis at the time of admission and after 48 hours.

Study Design: Cross-sectional study design.

Place and Duration: Department of General Surgery, Nishtar Hospital, Multan, from August 2022 to August 2023.

Methodology: A total of 106 patients diagnosed with pancreatitis were enrolled in the study. The primary variables included age, gender, Ranson score at the time of admission and after 48 hours, complication rates, and mortality. Patients were assessed and categorized using Ranson criteria. Data analysis was performed using SPSS version 23, with a p-value ≤ 0.05 considered statistically significant.

Results: The distribution of complications in relation to the Ranson score at admission (RSA) showed no significant association (p = 0.159). However, the mortality rate associated with RSA was 8.4%, with a significant correlation observed between RSA and mortality (p = 0.000). The Ranson score after 48 hours was significantly associated with both complications and mortality (p = 0.001 and p = 0.000, respectively), with the mortality rate remaining consistent at 8.4%.

Conclusion: The Ranson scoring system is a reliable and accurate tool for predicting the progression of acute and severe acute pancreatitis. While the criteria are straightforward and easy to recall, completing the assessment requires 48 hours, limiting its immediate applicability at the time of admission.